Jun 5, 2014

Singapore revenue and expenditure for 2013 IF we have a citizen dividend / unconditional basic income

Probably the most important question about a citizen dividend or an unconditional basic income is where the money is coming from, and consequently what is the effect on the running of the government.

This is an analysis of how Singapore government's revenue and expenditure for 2013 will look like if Singapore adopts a citizen ownership democracy, where revenue from common wealth is distributed to citizens in the form of a citizen dividend.

Based on the numbers presented by the government, there is a common wealth revenue of $17.66 billion. Note that this is only part of the full common wealth revenue. With a population of 3.3 million, the citizen dividend is $5331 for every citizen, regardless of age or other factors. If this amount of citizen dividend is distributed, it has no substantial impact on the government expenditure. By cutting all the transfers to other funds, and the budget surplus, the savings add up to already $15.59 billion.

The government's operating and development expenditures are left untouched. If the citizen dividend is distributed, few if any will qualify for the means tested welfare. Poverty will be totally eradicated.

The common wealth revenue reported above does not include the full sovereign investment return, which is at least another $8 billion, and land sales revenue (which is $27.97 billion in 2012). If we include these items (estimated at $8 and $28 billion), the full common wealth revenue is at least $53.66 billion. The full citizen dividend is at least $16,200 per citizen. This is about US$12,800.

This is a mind-boggling amount that most Singaporeans will find it hard to believe. Most people around the world will find it hard to believe that a citizen dividend can be that much, without any substantial impact on the functioning of the government. But that is what the numbers show.



Notes for the table
In the following table, the "FY2013" column shows the actual revenue and expenditure as reported by the Singapore government. The "common wealth" column identifies the revenue items that come from common wealth. In this case, the items are road space allocation (vehicle quota premiums and motor vehicle taxes), gambling license (betting taxes), other licences (other fees and charges), and sovereign wealth investment return (Net investment returns contribution). Note that the investment return shown here is only up to 50% of the expected returns. The government numbers exclude two very big common wealth revenue items. One is the rest of the sovereign wealth investment return (at least $7.94 billion) and the other is the land sales (which is $28 billion for 2012). These are added at the bottom of the table.

FY2013
Common wealth
Transfer cuts
$ billion
$ billion
$ billion
OPERATING REVENUE
57.15
Corporate Income Tax
12.55
Personal Income Tax
7.65
Withholding Tax
1.13
Statutory Boards’ Contributions
0.53
Assets Taxes
4.23
Customs and Excise Taxes
2.2
Goods and Services Tax
9.52
Motor Vehicle Taxes
1.69
1.69
Vehicle Quota Premiums
2.76
2.76
Betting Taxes
2.34
2.34
Stamp Duty
4.05
Other Taxes
5.26
Other Fees and Charges
2.93
2.93
Others
0.32
Less:
TOTAL EXPENDITURE
52.34
Operating Expenditure
40.43
Development Expenditure
11.91
PRIMARY SURPLUS / DEFICIT1
4.8
Less:
SPECIAL TRANSFERS2
8.82
Special Transfers Excluding Top-ups to Endowment and Trust Funds
3.22
3.22
GST Voucher and GST Voucher Special Payment
0.68
0.68
Utilities-Save Rebates and Service and Conservancy Charges Rebates
0.08
0.08
CPF Medisave Top-ups
0.31
0.31
Productivity and Innovation Credit
0.65
0.65
Productivity and Innovation Credit Bonus
0.64
0.64
Wage Credit Scheme
0.82
0.82
SME Cash Grant
0.04
0.04
Other Transfers
0.01
0.01
BASIC SURPLUS / DEFICIT
1.58
Top-ups to Endowment and Trust Funds
5.59
Top-ups to Endowment Funds
2.32
2.32
GST Voucher Fund
3
3
Cultural Matching Fund
0.2
0.2
National Youth Fund
0.07
0.07
Add:
NET INVESTMENT RETURNS CONTRIBUTION
7.94
7.94
OVERALL BUDGET SURPLUS / DEFICIT
3.92
3.92
Revenue from common wealth (excluding land sales)
17.66
Savings from transfer cuts and budget surplus
15.96
Citizen dividend ($dollars). With population of 3.313 million in 2013.
$5,331
Excluded from the above figures
Remainder of the net investment returns
8
   (more than or same as the net investment return contribution)
Land sales (2012 figure. 2013 figure is not available.)
28
Total revenue from common wealth
53.66
Citizen dividend ($dollars)
$16,197

1 Surplus / Deficit before Special Transfers and Net Investment Returns Contribution.
2 Special Transfers include Top-ups to Endowment and Trust Funds.

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